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目的了解气温等气象因素对城市居民每日疾病死亡的影响特点与规律,以采取针对性的预防措施,减少因气候变化导致的居民超额死亡率。方法根据重庆市疾病预防控制中心提供的2003年1月1日至2007年12月31日的某县居民每日死亡资料和中国气象局提供的相应期间气象监测资料,采用时间序列的Poisson广义相加模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势、短期波动及双休日效应等混杂因素的基础上,分析气温、相对湿度、气压、降雨量、风速等气象因素及空气污染指数与居民每日死亡的关系。结果气温每上升1℃,超额死亡率为12%;其他混杂因子中,相对湿度每下降1%,超额死亡率为4%;空气污染指数每上升1个单位,超额死亡率为0.6%。结论气温的增加及其与相对湿度、空气污染等协同作用可导致该县居民超额死亡率的上升。
Objective To understand the characteristics and laws of daily temperature deaths caused by air temperature and other meteorological factors in order to take targeted preventive measures to reduce the excess mortality caused by climate change. Methods According to the daily death data of residents in a county from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2007 provided by Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the corresponding meteorological monitoring data provided by China Meteorological Administration, the time series Poisson generalized phase Based on the mixed factors such as long-term trend, seasonal trend, short-term fluctuation and weekends, the model was used to analyze the meteorological factors such as temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, rainfall and wind speed and the relationship between air pollution index and daily death of residents. Results As the temperature increased by 1 ℃, the excess mortality rate was 12%. For other confounding factors, the relative humidity decreased by 1% and the excess mortality rate was 4%. The air pollution index increased by 1 unit and the excess mortality rate was 0.6%. Conclusions The increase of temperature and its synergy with relative humidity and air pollution can lead to an increase of the excess mortality of residents in this county.