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Production sharing contracts have been used in the development of Chinas offshore petroleum resources since 1982,but the mechanism in which the fiscal terms impact project economics is complicated and not well understood.The purpose of this paper is to model Chinas offshore production sharing contracts using a probabilistic approach.Cash flows and economic indicators are used for a typical offshore oiifieid development,and meta-models are constructed to analyze the basic features of the fiscal system.Applications of the models in contract negotiation are discussed.