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【目的】实现针对科技路线图内容的知识发现研究,预测未来科技长期发展趋势。【方法】基于采用“抽取–同步–分类”的文本挖掘方法构建的科技路线图信息库,集成分析全球科技发展需求和趋势,对比分析各国发展路线和措施,并以可再生能源领域为案例进行实证研究。【结果】利用开源工具Timeflow、Gephi等对实证研究结果进行可视化,按时间序列从多个角度呈现了可再生能源领域到2050年的发展态势及各国的战略规划。【局限】综合利用了多种方法工具,自动化程度有待提高,个性化功能有待完善。【结论】该研究方案能够快速获取科技路线图中的核心信息,提高情报获取效率。
【Objective】 To realize the knowledge discovery of science and technology roadmap and predict the long-term development trend of science and technology in the future. 【Method】 Based on the science and technology roadmap information database constructed by the text mining method of “Extract-Sync-Category”, this paper integratedly analyzes the global science and technology development needs and trends, compares and analyzes the development routes and measures of all countries, and uses the renewable energy field as Case studies. 【Result】 The results of the empirical research were visualized with open source tools such as Timeflow and Gephi, showing the development trend of renewable energy field by 2050 and the strategic planning of various countries according to time series. [Limitations] Comprehensive utilization of a variety of methods and tools, the degree of automation needs to be improved, personalized features to be improved. 【Conclusion】 The research program can quickly obtain the core information in the technology roadmap and improve the efficiency of information acquisition.