碳减排既是中国转变发展方式的内涵之一,也是经济增长的约束性指标之一,本文从中国碳排放分解模型入手,找寻出持续抑制中国碳排放增长的关键因素之一,即能耗结构。在分析了能源净进口与能耗结构变动的显著线性关系后,结合当前中国能源进口的世界格局及存在的潜在风险,得出中俄能源管道贸易在中国碳减排任务中可能扮演的重要角色,尤其是中俄天然气项目在进一步改善中国三种一次能源消费结构中的潜在助推作用。 Carbon emission reduction is not only one of the connotations of China’s transformation of development mode, but also one of the binding indicators of economic growth. Starting with China’s carbon emission decomposition model, this paper finds out one of the key factors that continue to curb carbon emissions growth in China, namely energy consumption structure . After analyzing the significant linear relationship between the net import of energy and the change of energy consumption structure, combining with the current world pattern of China’s energy import and the potential risks, we conclude that the important role China-Russia energy pipe trade may play in China’s carbon emission reduction mission , Especially the potential boost of Sino-Russian natural gas projects in further improving China’s three primary energy consumption structures.