基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价

来源 :地理学报(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:cuileidan
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators,the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.
其他文献
指出绝对关联度定义的不严格之处以及所给出的绝对关联度公式的不合理性,在此基础上,给出平移关联度的定义以及两个平移关联度计算公式.最后给出在证券市场中的应用.
针对动态市场的价格波动问题 ,运用突变理论与方法 ,在修正传统动态市场模型的基础上 ,建立了非线性动态市场价格的三个突变模型 ,并就实际问题进行了分析 ,得到了满意的结果
数据仓库技术是在充分地开发信息资源的迫切要求下产生并迅速发展起来的一个国际前沿研究新领域.本文分析传统决策支持系统开发中存在的问题,探讨数据仓库技术在决策支持系统
在建立高等学校财务评价指标体系的基础上,应用层次分析法测算出各指标的权重,然后将属性综合评价系统首次应用于高等学校财务评价领域,取得了满意的效果.
The local maxima of water density in the space near the single-helical of Konjac glucomarman as well as the dominant conformation of the system was studied by m
Gas-solid two-phase flow theory was used to predict dust distribution and movement at the working face of a mine. The software package FLUENT was used to numeri
A highly efficient method to get 3-and 6-modified mannose/altrose derivatives for oligosaccharide synthesis is described. All the compounds were obtained exclus
A bacterial strain,pcnb-21,capable of degrading pentachloronitrobenzene(PCNB)under aerobic and anoxic conditions,was isolated from a long-term PCNB-polluted soi
Atoms in most organic molecules are often carbon,oxygen,nitrogen,sulfur,halogens,etc.Based on the three-dimensional structure of a molecule,a molecular structur
We measured organic carbon input and content of soil in two wetland areas of Chongming Dongtan (Yangtze River Estuary) to evaluate variability in organic carbon