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目的探索灰色模型GM(1,1)在全国细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率定量宏观评估中的合理性与应用条件。方法收集1990-2011年中国大陆地区细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率。首先,利用1990-2007发病率建立灰色模型,然后对2008-2010发病率进行预测。结果灰色模型GM(1,1)基本适合细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病拟合与预测研究,C=0.399,p=0.882。结论 GM(1,1)模型本质上是指数模型,当传染病发病率数据服从指数模型时,利用GM(1,1)效果较好。当数据不服从指数模型时,GM(1,1)拟合结果不理想,此时应考虑采用其他方法。
Objective To explore the rationality and application conditions of gray model GM (1,1) in the quantitative macro assessment of the incidence of bacterial and amoebic dysentery in China. Methods The incidence of bacterial and amoebic dysentery in Mainland China from 1990 to 2011 was collected. First, the use of 1990-2007 incidence rate to establish a gray model, and then predict the incidence of 2008-2010. Results The gray model GM (1,1) was suitable for the fits and predictors of bacterial and amoebic dysentery, C = 0.399, p = 0.882. Conclusion The GM (1,1) model is essentially an exponential model. When the incidence of infectious diseases is subject to an exponential model, GM (1,1) is better. When the data does not obey the exponential model, the fitting result of GM (1,1) is not ideal, and other methods should be considered in this case.