本文主要分析利率市场化的宏观效应。利率水平上升有助于抑制投资、促进消费;利率上升和资金配置效率提高有助于推动服务业发展,促进产业结构调整;存贷利差收窄降低银行利润,银行向企业和居民让利;伴随利率市场化的是金融市场快速发展、直接融资加快,这有利于优化金融结构。但利率市场化也可能带来一系列宏观风险。银行特别是小型银行面临较大的经营风险;金融创新加快的同时也带来了风险;房地产业潜在信用风险可能进一步加大;地方政府债务有进一步上升的危险;财政收入增长会因为银行业税收增速降低而有所下降。建议审慎、稳妥地放开存款利率上限,并在金融监管、货币政策、财税政策、重点领域调控等方面采取相应举措。 This article mainly analyzes the macro effect of market-based interest rates. Higher interest rates will help curb investment and promote consumption; rising interest rates and higher capital allocation efficiency will help to promote the development of the service industry and promote the adjustment of industrial structure; narrowing the deposit-loan spreads will reduce the profitability of banks; the banks will give benefits to enterprises and residents; Market-oriented interest rate is the rapid development of financial markets, direct financing to speed up, which is conducive to optimizing the financial structure. However, marketization of interest rates may also bring about a series of macro risks. Banks, especially small banks, face greater operational risks; while financial innovation accelerates, they also bring risks; the potential credit risk in the real estate industry may further increase; the risk of further rise in local government debts; the growth of fiscal revenue will be attributed to the taxation of the banking industry Lower growth rate declined. It is suggested that the deposit interest rate ceiling should be liberalized prudently and prudently and relevant measures should be taken in areas such as financial supervision, monetary policy, fiscal and tax policies, and regulation in key areas.