为准确评价区域干旱特征,基于贝叶斯公式,构建了区域干旱评价指标体系,计算了各评价指标的干旱等级概率,采用最大似然分类原则确定了单个干旱指标的评价结果,并采用改进的TOPSIS方法计算了各指标的权重系数,加权得到区域的干旱等级。以江苏省徐州地区干旱评价为例,将评价结果与实际情况及综合指数法进行对比,结果表明该方法有效、可靠。 In order to accurately evaluate regional drought characteristics, a regional drought assessment index system was constructed based on the Bayesian formula, and the drought grade probability of each evaluation index was calculated. The evaluation result of single drought index was determined by the principle of maximum likelihood classification, and the improved The TOPSIS method calculates the weight coefficient of each index and weights it to get the drought level of the area. Taking the drought evaluation in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province as an example, the evaluation results are compared with the actual situation and the comprehensive index method. The results show that the method is effective and reliable.