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一场波及全美的楼价下调趋势似乎开始成形。占市场需求四成的投资/投机需求突然消失,投机资金开始获利回吐,楼价进一步松动,调整态势已然明朗。不过从英国和澳洲的经验看,楼市调整未必一定导致经济大幅减速。笔者认为美国经济软着陆的可能性比较高。但在着陆过程中,经济突然失速的风险自然比平时大,目前被掩盖住的结构性失衡(如双赤字、过度消费)随时可能成为市场抛售的素材,硬着陆的可能性不能排除。
A price-cutting trend that has affected the whole United States seems to be starting to take shape. 40% of the market demand for investment / speculative demand suddenly disappear, speculative funds began to take profits, property prices further loosening, the adjustment trend has become clear. However, from the experience of Britain and Australia, the property market adjustment may not necessarily lead to a substantial economic slowdown. The author believes that the U.S. economy is more likely to have a soft landing. However, during the landing process, the risk of a sudden economic slowdown is naturally greater than usual. The structural imbalances that are currently covered up (such as double deficits and overconsumption) may become material for market selling at any time and the possibility of a hard landing can not be ruled out.