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本文把可靠性理论中故障率的概念引用于地震预报,建立了一族新的可靠函数w_1(t)=exp[-λt~a·e~(c·sin)(ωlnt+(?))].新可靠函数具有如下功能:1.其参数 a 可作为判别各地震活动期(大释放期、剩余释放期及积累期)的数值判据:当a<1时为剩余释放期,当 a=1时为积累期,当 a>1时为大释放期.2.其故障率函数能较好地描述各活动期内地震活动的起伏变化,并能进一步判断其地震活动的高低.3.当 c=0时,新可靠函数退化为怀布尔(Weibull,W)可靠函数,即后者是前者的一个特殊情形.用新的可靠函数对唐山7.8级地震、新丰江6.1级地震、滇东地震带及东南沿海地震带作了分析,效果较好.
In this paper, the concept of failure rate in reliability theory is applied to earthquake prediction, and a new family of reliable functions w_1 (t) = exp [-λt ~ a · c ~ sin (ωlnt + (?))] The reliable function has the following functions: 1. The parameter a can be used as a criterion to judge the seismicity periods (large release period, remaining release period and accumulation period): when a <1, the remaining release period, when a = 1 For the accumulation period, when a> 1, it is a large release period.2 The failure rate function can well describe the fluctuation of seismic activity in each active period and can further judge the seismic activity.3 When c = 0, the new reliable function degenerates into a reliable function of Weibull (W), that is, the latter is a special case of the former. Using the new reliable function, a new reliable function is obtained for the magnitude 7.8 Tangshan earthquake, the 6.1 magnitude Xinfengjiang earthquake, And the southeast coastal seismic zone made an analysis, the effect is better.