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仙居县是恶性肿瘤高发区之一,癌症粗死亡率为171.34/10万。胃、食管、肝恶性肿瘤(以下简称三癌)占全部肿瘤死亡数的85.21%,其死亡率具有随年龄增长而升高的趋势。为了探讨这种趋势的规律,笔者用指数曲线方程 y=10~(a+bx)对仙居县1986～1988年居民死因回顾调查资料的三癌死亡率的年龄分布进行了数学摸拟,建立了三癌的死亡率年龄分布的指数曲线模型,现将结果报告如下:
Xianju County is one of the areas with high incidence of malignant tumors. The crude death rate of cancer is 171.34/10 million. Gastric, esophageal, and hepatic malignancies (hereinafter abbreviated as triple cancers) accounted for 85.21% of all tumor deaths, and their mortality rate increased with age. In order to explore the laws of this trend, the author used an exponential curve equation y=10~(a+bx) to mathematically simulate the age distribution of the three-cancer mortality of the residents from 1986 to 1988 in Xianju County. An exponential curve model of the age distribution of the three cancer mortality rates is now reported as follows: