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2011年1月,天然橡胶市场在基本面支撑下维持了强势格局,沪胶指数月度涨幅近10%;日胶市场政策更显宽松,日胶指数月度涨幅达14%。春节过后,全球天然橡胶将陆续进入减持或停割期,供应紧张的局面难以得到明显改善,仍将对2月的天然橡胶市场形成主要支撑。另外,国内宏观经济尽管在2010年下半年出现一定下滑,但全年增长率仍达到2位数,总体经济形势依旧向好,有利于为资本市场营造较好的大环境。全球通胀担忧仍然存在,大宗商品依旧呈现易涨难跌的局面。不过国内还是存在一些压制因素,尤其是货币调控政策,还有产业政策出台的可能性有所增大,消费担忧有所提升。综合分析,2月天然橡胶供应紧张的基本面仍将冲淡消费担忧等利空因素的影响,沪胶市场或继续高位运行,但众多政策的不确定性可能导致沪胶市场波动较大,预计沪胶指数围绕40000元宽幅震荡的可能性大。
In January 2011, the natural rubber market maintained its strong pattern under the support of fundamentals. The Hujiao Index rose nearly 10% monthly; the daily rubber market policy was more relaxed and the daily plastic index rose by 14% monthly. After the Spring Festival, the world’s natural rubber will gradually enter the reduction or suspension period, the tight supply situation is difficult to be significantly improved, will still form the main support for the natural rubber market in February. In addition, despite a certain decline in the second half of 2010, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate still reached 2 digits. The overall economic situation is still favorable, which is conducive to creating a better environment for the capital market. Concerns over global inflation persist, with commodities still showing signs of easing up and falling. However, there are still some domestic repressive factors, especially monetary control policies, as well as the possibility of introducing industrial policies has increased, consumer concerns have increased. Comprehensive analysis, in February the fundamentals of natural rubber supply will dilute consumer concerns and other negative factors, Hujiao market or continue to run high, but the uncertainty of many policies may lead Hujiao market volatility is expected Hujiao The index is likely to fluctuate around 40,000 yuan wide shocks.