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冲突是一类普遍的社会现象,基于元对策的F-H冲突分析方法已经在水资源冲突管理领域得到了广泛的应用。在深入分析F-H方法原理的基础上,提出了一种考虑决策者对冲突问题预见能力的冲突局势稳定性分析方法,寻求冲突问题的均衡解。在局势稳定性分析过程中,当局中人基于个人预见水平不存在单方改进某可行局势的动机时,该局势对此局中人而言是稳定的。当全体局中人都认为某可行局势是稳定的,则此局势称为冲突问题的均衡点。最后,该方法被运用到湖北省宜昌市黄柏河流域水资源冲突问题中,模拟结果表明宜昌市水电局同时采取“激励合作”“强化管理”、东风渠灌区管理局“增加引水”、黄柏河流域管理局“追求效益”是最稳定的一种策略组合。提出的冲突局势稳定性分析为寻求冲突均衡提供了一种可行方法。
Conflict is a kind of common social phenomenon. F-H conflict analysis method based on meta-countermeasure has been widely used in the field of water resources conflict management. On the basis of further analysis of the principle of F-H method, this paper proposes a method to analyze the stability of conflict situations considering the ability of decision-makers to anticipate conflicts, and seeks a solution to the problem of conflict. In the process of analyzing the stability of the situation, the situation in which the man in the government is stable under the assumption that there is no motivation for the man in the bureau based on his personal foresight level to unilaterally improve a feasible situation. When all the people in the Bureau think that a viable situation is stable, the situation is called a balance of conflicts. Finally, the method is applied to the problem of water resources conflict in Huangbaihe River Basin, Yichang City, Hubei Province. The simulation results show that Yichang City Hydropower Bureau also adopted “Incentive Cooperation”, “Strengthening Management” and “Dongfeng Canal Irrigation Administration” Diversion “, Huangbai River Basin Authority ” pursuit of efficiency "is the most stable strategy. The proposed analysis of the stability of conflict situations provides a viable method for seeking a balance of conflicts.