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泾河流域是农业旱灾的多发地区,但是对该地农业旱灾的发生规律、旱灾影响及旱灾恢复和准备措施方面开展的研究还较少。本文根据自然灾害风险评估的理论框架,建立了1km栅格精度的泾河流域农业旱灾风险空间评估模型,并对农业旱灾致灾因子危险性及农业承险体脆弱性进行评估,最后综合评估该地区农业旱灾风险。在此基础上,分析研究区农业旱灾危险性、承险体脆弱性及风险的空间特征。本研究采用Z指数方法评估泾河流域农业旱灾致灾因子的强度,选取农作物生长季缺水率、土壤有效含水量、有效灌溉面积比以及坡度等4个指标评估研究区1km空间尺度的农业旱灾脆弱性。农业旱灾风险综合评估的结果表明,泾河流域农业旱灾风险的高风险区位于该地区北部,低风险区位于该地区南部,且不同等级风险区呈现出自东向西、自南向北逐渐降低的总体趋势,但不同等级风险区呈现间隔分布的趋势。
Although the Jinghe River Basin is a frequent agricultural droughts, less research has been done on the occurrence of agricultural droughts, the impact of drought and the measures for drought recovery and preparedness in this area. Based on the theoretical framework of risk assessment of natural disasters, this paper establishes a spatial assessment model of agricultural drought risk in Jinghe River Basin with 1km grid precision and evaluates the risk of agricultural drought hazard and vulnerability of agricultural undertakings. Finally, Regional agricultural drought risk. On this basis, the spatial characteristics of agricultural drought hazard, vulnerability and risks of agricultural insurance are analyzed. In this study, Z index was used to evaluate the intensity of hazard factors of agricultural droughts in Jinghe River Basin. Four indicators of water deficit, effective soil water content, effective irrigated area ratio and slope of crop growing season were selected to evaluate agricultural droughts Vulnerability. The results of the comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought risk showed that the high-risk area of agricultural drought risk in the Jinghe River Basin is located in the northern part of the area, the low-risk area is located in the southern part of the area, and the risk areas of different grades appear from east to west and gradually decrease from south to north The overall trend, but different levels of risk interval showing the trend of distribution.