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“不确定性”一词可从多个方面形容当代历史编纂学。从第二次世界大战结束到20世纪70年代末,历史编撰学的方法主要是结构史学、计量方法和心态史学,这些方法为历史编撰学提供了确定性的模式。而在20世纪80年代前后,依据决定论的历史思考逐步过渡到了广泛批判决定论的历史编纂学。微观史学、新科学史、法国大革命研究等几个领域产生的新的研究深刻更新了历史学家对研究对象的看法,尤其使带有政治意义的宏大故事受到质疑。旧的确定性受到挑战,但新的方法并未建立新的确定性,反而强调情境化,避免普遍化。这些变化带来研究对象、关注问题和使用材料方面的变化。
The term “uncertainty” describes modern historiography in many ways. From the end of the Second World War to the end of the 1970s, the methods of historical compilation were mainly structural history, measurement methods and psychology, which provided a definite model for historical compilation. However, in the 1980s, according to the historical thinking of determinism, it gradually shifted to the historical compilation of extensive critical determinism. The new research in several fields such as micro-historiography, new science history and the French Revolutionary History has profoundly updated the views of historians on the subject of study. In particular, the ambitious political story has been questioned. The old certainty is challenged, but the new approach does not establish new certainty, but instead emphasizes contextualization and avoids generalization. These changes lead to changes in research subjects, concerns and materials used.