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基于制造业需求对生产性服务业发展的重要作用,本文从规模经济和创新激励等渠道分析了制造业需求变化对生产性服务业效率的影响机理,并考察了地区经济发展水平对这种影响的调节效应。本文以1995-2014年中国制造业和生产性服务业的面板数据为样本所做的经验研究发现:(1)制造业对生产性服务业需求的提高有助于生产性服务业效率的改善,且与劳动密集型制造业相比,资本密集型制造业需求程度的提高对生产性服务业效率的促进作用更大;(2)虽然制造业需求的增加在总体上有利于生产性服务业效率的提高,但是在经济发展的不同阶段,这种促进作用并不呈现简单的线性效应,而是表现为一种非线性的门槛效应,即当越过一定的经济发展水平门槛后,制造业需求对生产性服务业效率的促进作用会有明显跃升,且资本密集型制造业所面临的门槛水平要高于劳动密集型制造业。本文的研究在一定程度上为制定科学的产业发展战略提供了有益启示。
Based on the important role of manufacturing demand in the development of producer services, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of manufacturing demand changes on the efficiency of producer services from the perspectives of scale economy and innovation incentives, and examines the impact of regional economic development on this The regulatory effect. Based on the panel data of China’s manufacturing and producer services from 1995 to 2014, the empirical study shows that: (1) The increase in manufacturing demand for producer services helps to improve the efficiency of producer services, And, compared with labor-intensive manufacturing industry, the increase in the degree of demand for capital-intensive manufacturing plays a greater role in promoting the efficiency of producer services. (2) Although the increase in manufacturing demand generally contributes to the efficiency of producer services However, at different stages of economic development, this promotion does not show a simple linear effect, but rather a non-linear threshold effect. That is, when a certain threshold of economic development is crossed, the demand of manufacturing industry Productive service efficiency will have a significant role in promoting and the capital-intensive manufacturing sector will face a higher threshold than labor-intensive manufacturing. The research in this article provides useful enlightenment for the formulation of a scientific industrial development strategy to a certain extent.