本文以国家“十五”计划的经济发展目标为现实依据 ,对我国未来 10年的军费规模作了理论和现实的分析。提出军费增长应以“区间论”为理论基础 ,划分为“跳跃式”和“渐进式”两个阶段 ,至 2 0 0 5年和 2 0 10年分别达到军费占国民生产总值 2 .5%～ 3%的目标 Based on the reality of the economic development goals of the national “Tenth Five-Year Plan”, this article makes a theoretical and realistic analysis of the scale of military expenditures in the coming 10 years in our country. Proposed that the growth of military expenditures should be based on the theory of “interval theory” and divided into two stages of “leapfrogging” and “gradual progress”. By the year 2005 and 2010 respectively, military expenditures will be 2.5% of the gross national product % ~ 3% of the target