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目的开展洪涝灾害公共卫生风险评估,确定现阶段需要优先控制的公共卫生问题,为指导做好卫生应急准备提供科学依据。方法通过查阅文献和专家咨询收集洪涝灾害公共卫生风险问题,采用德尔菲法筛选安徽省洪涝灾害发生时的风险问题;运用层次分析法,使用澳大利亚/新西兰风险分析模型构建层次结构模型和判断矩阵,运用专家会商确定判断矩阵的赋值;计算各层权重及总权重,并进行权值排序,得出风险问题顺位。结果安徽省2016年洪涝灾害风险最大的为食源性疾病,其次为皮肤病,其他风险问题的风险顺位依次为伤害、急性结膜炎、其他感染性腹泻、血吸虫病、痢疾、流行性出血热、钩端螺旋体病和霍乱。结论根据评估结果针对不同风险问题的风险顺位开展合适的卫生应急准备,从而有效地应对洪涝灾害发生时的公共卫生风险。
Objective To carry out public health risk assessment of floods and floods and determine the public health issues that need priority control at this stage and provide a scientific basis for guiding the preparation of emergency response plans. Methods The public health risks of floods were collected through literature review and expert consultation. The Delphi method was used to screen the risk of floods and floods in Anhui Province. Using the analytic hierarchy process and the Australian / New Zealand risk analysis model to construct the hierarchical structure model and judgment matrix, Use expert consultation to determine the assignment of judgment matrix; calculate the weight and total weight of each layer, and rank the weights to get the ranking of risk problems. Results In 2016, the highest risk of floods in Anhui Province was food-borne diseases, followed by dermatosis. The risk of other risk problems was injury, acute conjunctivitis, other infectious diarrhea, schistosomiasis, dysentery, epidemic hemorrhagic fever , Leptospirosis and cholera. Conclusion Based on the assessment results, we can conduct appropriate health emergency preparedness according to the risk ranking of different risk issues so as to effectively deal with public health risks when floods occur.