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目的给出人为差错模式并确定其可靠度;提出防止人为差错的安全对策. 方法将人系统视为可修的“马氏”系统,并基于马尔柯夫方法进行推证和实际计算. 结果人为差错是导致事故发生的主要原因,并以不同的方式出现. 在作业过程中存在着正常和差错两种状态,其状态转移过程为马尔柯夫过程. 人的行为可靠度随工作时间的延续而下降. 结论将人为差错以量的形式来描述,这对研究人与事故的关系具有一定的理论指导意义,同时有助于防止事故的发生和提高系统的安全性.“,”Aim A model of human errors is given. His reliability of action is also determined. Safety countermeasures to prevent human errors are put forward. Methods Human system is regarded as a maintainable Markov system. On the basis of Markov method, the deduction and calculation in practice are made. Results Human errors are the chief factors leading to accidents, and may appear in different models. There are two kinds of states the normal and error state in a process of work. The process of state transfer human system is a Markov process. Human action reliability will be decreased with the continuation of time. Conclusion Human errors are described in the quantified form. It will have some significance in terms of theory in the study of the relationship between human action and accidents. Thus helping us in the preven-tion of accident occurrence. The safety of a system can be improved in this way.