【摘 要】
:
The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998-2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participat
【机 构】
:
First Institute of Oceanography,and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling,Ministry
论文部分内容阅读
The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998-2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) cannot simulate it.Here,we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown,and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the slowdown.The results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5,most of them still fail to reproduce the warming slowdown.They considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998-2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed deceleration.This is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual,interdecadal,and multidecadal scales.In contrast,the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three key-scale natural variabilities.Our work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.
其他文献
Quartz crystallinity index(QCI)was used to reflect the crystallisation of silica in the Late Ordovician Wufeng(WF)and Early Silurian Longmaxi(LM)Formation shale,as well as the airborne volcanic ash-derived silica in the Lucaogou Formation tuffaceous shale
The Late Triassic Tianqiaoling flora is well-known in China,and its discovery has changed our understanding of Chinese Late Triassic phytogeographical divisions.More broadly,this flora has great significance for the study of phytogeo-graphy in East Asia d
The predominant types of high-grade iron deposits in China include skarn,sedimentary metamorphic(banded iron-formation,BIF-type),continental/submarine volcanic-hosted and magmatic Fe-Ti-V oxide deposits.Based on a comprehensive review of current studies o
Previous researches had emphasized tectonic impacts on the fluvial system at the tectonically active areas,while the effects oflithology and local base level change have received relatively rare attention.Here we investigated fluvial landforms at differen
Numerous field studies have shown that leaf wax n-alkane δD values(δDn-alkane)can be used as a proxy for paleoelevation reconstruction.However,the lack of systematic global analysis of δDn-alkane values with respect to altitude limits the reliability of δ
Wettability is an essential property of reservoirs that is of great importance for enhancing oil recovery (EOR) and oil migration.The wettability of reservoirs is generally believed to be strongly affected by mineral compositions but it is not always the
The upper Permian Heshan Formation in Pingguo,Guangxi,China,is strongly enriched in lithium(Li)and niobium(Nb).The lower bauxite layer contains 0.02-0.04 wt.%Nb2O5(averaging 0.035 wt.%),and the overlying clay rock layer contains 0.06-1.05 wt.%Li2O(averagi
Seismic properties of hydrate-bearing reservoirs that are affected significantly by the hydrate distribution are key for quantitative assessment of the reservoir.The knowledge of hydrate distribution in fractured reservoirs remains poorly under-stood.To o
Many orogenic belts in the world exhibit accretionary and collisional orogenic phases to varying extents.How accretion evolves into collision of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt(CAOB),the largest Phanerozoic accretionary orogenic belt,is an intriguing ques
Micro-supercapacitors (MSCs) show great potential as on-chip energy storage devices for portable electronics.The major flaw of thin-film MSCs is their low energy density.To improve the energy density,thicker electrodes are required.However,the fabrication