试验采用通用旋转组合设计，模拟研究了冬小麦产量与降水量、施氮量及施磷量的关系。结果表明：在雨养农业区，冬小麦产量主要受降水量限制，施氮量对产量影响较大，施磷量影响较小。模拟研究得出本试验设计范围内，冬小麦最高产量为５６００．５ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，此时需降水为６００ｍｍ，最佳施纯氮量为１５０ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，施纯磷量为１０３．８ｋｇ／ｈｍ２；模拟还得出在不同降水情况时，获得冬小麦最高产量所需的最佳施肥量以及降水量与施氮量的互作效应关系。 In the experiment, a universal rotary combination design was used to simulate the relationship between the yield of winter wheat and the amount of precipitation, nitrogen application and phosphorus application. The results showed that in the rainfed farming area, the yield of winter wheat was mainly limited by the amount of precipitation. The amount of nitrogen application had a great effect on the yield and the effect of phosphorus application was small. The simulation results showed that the maximum yield of winter wheat was 5600.5kg / hm2, the precipitation was 600mm, the best nitrogen application rate was 150kg / hm2 and the pure phosphorus application rate was 103.8kg / hm2. In the case of different precipitation, the optimum amount of fertilizer needed to obtain the highest yield of winter wheat and the interaction effect between precipitation and nitrogen application rate were obtained.