对于现行全球化框架而言,2017年仍将是艰难的一年:全球经济贸易增长仍将缓慢,生产性国际投资减速,贸易保护主义、反全球化潮流上升,全球贸易体系正在进入乱云飞渡的动荡时期。在美联储超出力度的加息冲击之下,许多国家、特别是新兴市场国家的经济将受到较大影响。在这种情况下,正常的生产性跨境直接投资将减少,出于避险、投机等动机的资本外逃则可能进一步增长。为了防范资本外逃而收 2017 will be a tough year for the current globalized framework: the growth of the global economy and trade will remain sluggish, the productive investment in international markets will slow down, the protectionist trend of trade and anti-globalization will rise, and the global trading system is entering the chaotic cloud. Ferry turmoil period. Under the impact of the Fed’s raising interest rates beyond its efforts, the economy of many countries, especially emerging market countries, will be greatly affected. Under such circumstances, normal productive cross-border direct investment will be reduced and capital flight, motivated by speculation and hedging, may further increase. In order to prevent capital flight and receive