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研究地下水资源承载力准确预测问题,是对区域地下水开发利用状况的一种定量描述。本研究采用定性和定量相结合的方法,基于吐鲁番市水资源现状,采用系统动力学仿真模型研究方法,建立吐鲁番地区地下水资源承载力系统动力学模型。预测2011-2025年吐鲁番地区不同发展策略下各指标数值。仿真结果表明:地下水资源承载力系统动力学模型能够动态仿真和并能够调控地下水资源承载力。研究结果可为吐鲁番地区地下水开发利用规划的制定提供一定的理论指导依据。
Studying the problem of accurately predicting the bearing capacity of groundwater resources is a quantitative description of the development and utilization of groundwater resources in the region. Based on the present situation of water resources in Turpan City, this study adopts the method of systematic dynamics simulation model to establish the systematic dynamic model of groundwater resources carrying capacity in Turpan region. Predict the value of each index under different development strategies in Turpan during 2011-2025. The simulation results show that the system dynamic model of groundwater resources carrying capacity can simulate dynamically and control the carrying capacity of groundwater resources. The results of this study can provide some theoretical guidance for the formulation of groundwater exploitation and utilization planning in Turpan.