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在讨论全球生产网络转型时,中国与其他国家或地区的真实贸易往来情况是重要的研究基础。由于受到进口中间品价值转移和香港地区转口贸易的双重影响,传统贸易统计方法不能准确反映中国的双边贸易往来情况。本文着重于修正上述影响,并通过分析修正后的双边贸易数据和竞争力权重变化,揭示出中国在全球生产网络中的转型路径。本文认为,中国所处的生产网络是一个由美、英、德、法等国构成的需求层面与由中、日、韩等国构成的供给层面共同组成的供需体系。目前,在华跨国企业有将生产过程逐步向生产链上游拓展的趋势,东亚生产网络中的非核心中端部分呈现中国本土化和内部化特征。同时,处于生产链下游的低端劳动密集型行业正在向中国以外转移。这种向生产链上游拓展的趋势在短期内难以弥补低端行业转出中国所带来的缺口,中国出口增长放慢的趋势短期内不会显著改善。
When discussing the transformation of global production networks, the real trade situation between China and other countries or regions is an important research basis. Due to the double impact of the transfer of value of imported intermediate goods and entrepot trade in Hong Kong, traditional trade statistics methods can not accurately reflect China’s bilateral trade. This article focuses on correcting the above effects and reveals China’s transition path in global production networks by analyzing the revised weights of bilateral trade data and competitiveness. This paper argues that the production network in China is a supply and demand system composed of the demand level composed of the United States, Britain, Germany and France and the supply level composed of China, Japan and South Korea. At present, multinationals in China have the tendency to gradually expand their production processes to the upper reaches of the production chain. The non-core middle-end part of East Asia’s production network is characterized by its localization and internalization. At the same time, the low-end labor-intensive industries at the lower reaches of the production chain are shifting away from China. This trend of expanding to the upper reaches of the production chain will not make up for the shortfall caused by the low-end industries moving out of China in the short term. The slowdown of China’s export growth will not be significantly improved in the short term.