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农产品价格,去年下半年以来,以城市居民难以承受的强劲势头上涨,引起了决策界和学术界的高度重视和普遍关注。为为什么去年农业生产形势基本正常,而农产品价格却以异乎寻常的势头上涨呢?为了阐释这一现象,我们首先必须分析出去年以来农产品价格上涨的成因,也只有这样,才能正确地把握农业生产形势和对1994年下半年农产品价格上涨的初步分析。 一、去年以来农产品价格上涨的原因 那么,是什么因素造成1994年下半年农产品价格以如此强劲势头上涨呢?现在有不少人把这个因素归结为农业生产滑坡。他们认为,前两年工业的高速增长、乡镇企业的迅猛发展以及农业劳动力的大量外流,造成了对农业重视不够,投入不足,大量农田粗放经营,甚至抛荒,再加上农业自然灾害频繁,从而1994年农业的供给能力大大下降,供不应求拉动了农产品市场价格迅猛上涨。我们认为,上述情况确实存在,供不应求也确实是拉动农产品价格上涨的一个因素,但不是全部因素,甚至可以说不是最主要的因素。因为1994年供求关系比较紧张的只是棉花、食油、食糖和猪肉等少数农产品,而且供求关系最为紧张的棉花,国家一直没有放开其经营和价格。那么到底是什么因素造成了农产品价格这一走势的呢?我们认为,除了部分农产品供求偏紧拉动了农产品价格上涨这一?
Since the second half of last year, the prices of agricultural products have risen unbearably with the urban residents. This has aroused the great attention and widespread concern of decision-makers and academics. To explain why the situation of agricultural production was basically normal last year while the prices of agricultural products rose in an extraordinary momentum? To explain this phenomenon, we must first analyze the causes of the agricultural price hikes since last year, and only in this way can we correctly grasp the agricultural production Situation and Preliminary Analysis of the Price Risks of Agricultural Products in the Second Half of 1994. First, the reason why agricultural prices have risen since last year So what caused the soaring prices of agricultural products in the second half of 1994? Many people now attribute this factor to the decline of agricultural production. In their view, the rapid industrial growth in the previous two years, the rapid development of township enterprises and the massive outflow of agricultural labor force caused insufficient attention to agriculture, inadequate investment, extensive management of farmland or even abandonment of farmland, coupled with frequent natural disasters in agriculture. In 1994, the supply capacity of agriculture dropped drastically and the demand in short supply drove up the market price of agricultural products rapidly. In our opinion, the above situation does exist. In short supply, it is indeed a factor that stimulates the price increase of agricultural products. However, it is not all factors, or even the most important factor. Because the tight supply and demand in 1994 only cotton, cooking oil, sugar and pork and a few other agricultural products, but also the most serious supply and demand of cotton, the country has not let go of its business and prices. So what factors have caused the price trend of agricultural products in the end? In our opinion, in addition to the partial supply and demand of some agricultural products, which leads to the price increase of agricultural products?