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农村金融的发展直接影响到中国经济下一步发展,然而由于考核机制不健全以及缺乏必要的征信技术和策略,正规金融机构似乎在农村金融市场难以盈利,并进一步导致了其在发展农村金融方面的缺位。本文结合“格莱珉”银行运作模式,建立基于信息不对称重复博弈模型,分析了影响农户还贷以及金融机构实现盈利的基本因素。研究表明,增强农户生产能力和周边违约不认同感,降低贷款金额、利率和成本可以提高农户的还款概率,而信息的利用和风险的控制会提高农村金融的收益。政府应进一步加强和完善金融机构风险管控,建立和完善共同信息服务系统;农村金融机构应转变经营理念,优化征信策略,实现农户与农村金融机构的双赢。
The development of rural finance has a direct impact on the further development of China’s economy. However, due to the incomplete assessment mechanism and the lack of necessary credit information technology and tactics, formal financial institutions seem to be hard-to-profit in rural financial markets and further lead them to develop rural finance The absence of. This paper, based on the mode of “Grameen” bank operation, establishes a repeated game model based on asymmetric information, and analyzes the basic factors that affect the repayments of farmers and the profitability of financial institutions. The research shows that increasing peasants’ productivity and surrounding defaults do not agree with each other, reducing the loan amount, interest rate and cost can increase the probability of repayment of farmers, and the utilization of information and risk control will increase the income of rural finance. The government should further strengthen and improve the risk management and control of financial institutions and establish and improve a common information service system. Rural financial institutions should change their management concepts and optimize their credit reporting strategies so as to achieve a win-win situation between rural households and rural financial institutions.