中信证券政策决定2012年地产行业基本面。在产业和货币政策基本不放松、调控政策仍较严厉但货币略有宽松、政策全面宽松三种不同的情况下,我们预计2012年商品房销售额将分别同比增长-37%、-6%和41%,2012年房地产开发投资分别同比增长-4%、8%和26%。由于目前产业政策和货币环境向偏好方向发展,我们预计基本面将落在乐观略偏中性的情景。银河证券中国房地产行业月均投资额从2006 CITIC Securities policy decisions 2012 real estate industry fundamentals. We expect the sales of commercial buildings to increase by -37%, -6% and -41% respectively over the same period of previous year in 2012 under the circumstances that the industry and monetary policy are basically not relaxed, the regulatory policies are still harsh, but the currency is slightly loose and the policy is totally relaxed. %, 2012 real estate development investment increased by -4%, 8% and 26% respectively. Given the current preference for industrial policy and currency environment, we expect the fundamentals to fall on the optimistic and slightly neutral scenario. Galaxy Securities China’s real estate industry average monthly investment from 2006