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2012年8月沪胶市场整体呈现震荡偏弱走势,上半月延续了7月末走势,主力合约1301在22000～23000元区间内震荡下行,并在14日创出年内新低20728元。下半月沪胶市场震荡区间下移至21000～22000元,随后东南亚出台的扶持政策对沪胶市场形成短期提振作用,27日在泰国收储预期下出现3.58%的月内最大涨幅。由于收储被否导致政策提振力减弱,沪胶市场最终依然呈弱势格局,沪胶指数月度跌幅为4.31%。9月份,如果泰国政府收储政策维持现状,东南亚政策提振力将继续弱化,天然橡胶价格走势将重新回到对消费端的依赖,但短期内消费端难以获得有效提振。供应削减力度不够,加上消费平淡,预计第3季度后期天然橡胶价格仍将形成震荡筑底的走势,波动区间或在20000～23000元。
August 2012 Hujiao market as a whole showed a weak shock trend, the first half of the continuation of the trend in late July, the main contract 1301 in the 22000 ~ 23000 yuan range shock down, and in the 14th hit a new low of 20,728 yuan during the year. In the second half Hujiao market turmoil range down to 21000 ~ 22000 yuan, followed by the introduction of Southeast Asia supportive policies Hujiao market to form a short-term boost, on the 27th in Thailand, purchasing and storage expected 3.58% of the month under the biggest gains. Hujiao market eventually remained in a weak pattern due to the weakening of policy boosting and purchasing and storage. Hujiao Index dropped 4.31% monthly. In September, if the Thai government’s purchasing and storage policy to maintain the status quo, the easing power of Southeast Asian policies will continue to weaken, natural rubber prices will return to relying on the consumer side, but the consumer side is difficult to obtain an effective boost in the short term. Supply reduction is not enough, coupled with flat consumption, is expected to post the third quarter of natural rubber prices will continue to form the trend of bottoming shocks, fluctuations in the interval or at 20000 ~ 23000 yuan.