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目的:施工进度-成本-质量均衡是面板堆石坝工程成功的关键。目前的均衡研究建立在静态经验数据上,仅针对规划和设计阶段,难以适应施工过程的动态性和不确定性。基于面板堆石坝施工质量实时监控技术,考虑动态决策偏好,本文提出施工进度-质量-成本动态均衡方法,以实现面向过程管理的进度-质量-成本均衡。创新点:1.提出基于面板堆石坝施工质量实时监控技术的施工进度、质量和成本动态预测方法;2.提出施工决策偏好动态量化方法;3.提出施工进度-质量-成本多目标均衡求解算法。方法:1.通过分析实时监控数据,更新仿真模型参数,仿真得到施工进度,再推导出质量和成本(图4、公式(8)和(10));2.采用层次分析法,动态量化施工过程中的管理者决策偏好,得到进度-质量-成本三目标间的权重(图5);3.采用改进的带精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法(公式(13)),求解动态均衡问题的Pareto解,并运用逼近理想解的排序法筛选出最优折衷方案(图5)。结论:1.基于实时监控进行施工进度、质量和成本的动态预测,提高了均衡结果与实际施工过程的一致性;2.动态量化决策偏好,并在优化求解中予以考虑,有助于最优折衷方案的筛选;3.在施工过程中任意阶段开展的施工进度-质量-成本动态均衡适应了施工条件的动态变化,可有效指导现场施工管理。
Purpose: The construction schedule - cost - quality balance is the key to the success of the concrete faced rockfill dam project. The current equilibrium studies are based on static empirical data and are aimed only at the planning and design stages, making it difficult to adapt to the dynamics and uncertainties of the construction process. Based on the real-time monitoring technology for the construction quality of CFRD and considering the dynamic decision preferences, this paper puts forward the construction schedule-quality-cost dynamic equilibrium method to realize the progress-quality-cost balance for process management. Innovative points: 1. Propose a dynamic prediction method of construction schedule, quality and cost based on real-time monitoring of construction quality of concrete faced rockfill dam; 2. Propose a dynamic quantitative method of construction decision preferences; 3. Propose a multi-objective equilibrium solution of construction schedule-quality-cost algorithm. Methods: 1. Analyze the real-time monitoring data, update the simulation model parameters, simulate the construction progress, and then derive the quality and cost (Figure 4, formulas (8) and (10) (Figure 5). 3. Using the improved non-dominated ranking genetic algorithm with the elite strategy (Eq. (13)) to solve the dynamic equilibrium problem Pareto solution, and use the ranking method close to the ideal solution to filter out the optimal compromise (Figure 5). The dynamic prediction of construction schedule, quality and cost based on real-time monitoring improves the consistency between the equilibrium result and the actual construction process. (2) The dynamic quantization decision preference is considered in the optimization solution, which is helpful to the optimal Compromise program screening; 3. Construction progress in any stage during the construction process - quality - cost dynamic equilibrium to adapt to the dynamic changes in construction conditions, which can effectively guide the construction site management.