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该文利用uncomtrade数据库HS6位目数据,基于种类变动视角测度了2002-2015年中国农产品贸易条件指数。结果显示:(1)考虑种类变动后,中国农产品贸易条件平均改善2.47%,且与固定种类下的贸易条件相比,长期趋势并未呈现明显的恶化特征;(2)进一步地,进口种类变动对贸易条件的改善起了主要作用,相对贡献率达到69.30%,而出口种类变动的相对贡献则仅为30.70%。因此,考虑种类变动对贸易的影响,不仅有利于我们正确理解进口的快速增长,无需过分担忧其对农产品贸易福利的负向影响;同时,提醒我们应更多关注中国农产品出口贸易结构的升级调整,通过满足消费者不断增长的多样化需求获取农产品出口的持续稳定发展。
In this paper, we use the rank data of uncomtrade database HS6 to measure the index of China’s agricultural products trade condition from 2002 to 2015 based on the change of species. The results showed that: (1) After considering the change of species, the terms of trade of agricultural products in China improved by 2.47% on average, and the long-term trend did not show any obvious deterioration compared with the terms of trade under fixed types; (2) Further, The improvement of terms of trade played a major role, with a relative contribution of 69.30%, while the relative contribution of changes in export categories was only 30.70%. Therefore, taking into account the impact of changes in trade on the trade will not only help us to correctly understand the rapid growth of imports, but will not unduly worry about its negative impact on the trade welfare of agricultural products. At the same time, we should pay more attention to the upgrading and adjustment of China’s agricultural export trade structure , To achieve the sustained and steady development of the export of agricultural products by meeting the growing diversified needs of consumers.