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为考察湖北极端天气事件的时空变化,采用1980—2014年逐日气候数据,并利用实证分析法研究了极端气候对水稻气候产量的影响。研究表明:1)湖北极端降水量和降水天数均呈下降趋势,极端降水事件由东向西、由南向北递减。2)极端高温呈上升趋势,表现为极端高温天数和强度增加。鄂北、鄂西易发生极端高温事件。3)极端气候类因素对水稻气候产量具有负向影响,其中,最低气温的极小值每增加1%将会使水稻的气候产量降低0.197%。白天极端高温天数对水稻气候产量也具有抑制作用,其每增加1%将会使水稻气候产量降低0.046%。因此,应加强湖北省极端天气事件易发区在水稻生长期内的气候监测和防范。
In order to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of extreme weather events in Hubei, the daily climatic data from 1980 to 2014 were used and the effects of extreme climate on rice climate were studied by using empirical analysis. The results show that: 1) Both the extreme precipitation and precipitation days in Hubei show a decreasing trend. The extreme precipitation events decrease from east to west and from south to north. 2) The extreme high temperature is on the rise, showing an increase in days and intensities of extreme hot temperatures. Northern Hubei, Hubei Province extreme extreme temperature events. 3) Extreme climatic factors have a negative impact on rice climatic production. For every 1% increase in minimum temperature, rice production will decrease by 0.197%. Extreme days of high temperature in the day also have an inhibitory effect on rice climatic yield, and every 1% increase in rice production will reduce rice climatic production by 0.046%. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen climate monitoring and prevention in the rice growing season in areas prone to extreme weather events in Hubei Province.