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麦敕勒(Metzler,1949)指出,对大国的进口行业征收关税可能会降低其国内相对价格,因而减少了它在经济中的产量份额。针对这一观点,本文发展了关于国民生产总值(GDP)转换对数函数系统的一个理论模型,并据此估计美国贸易政策对其行业产量份额的影响。通过采用美国及其经济合作与发展组织(OECD)贸易成员国的行业面板数据,并在控制要素禀赋和技术创新对行业产量份额的影响后,得出了在服装和玻璃行业呈现高关税导致低产量份额的经验证据。在控制了由贸易的政治经济因素导致的内生性及运用各类非关税壁垒代替关税作为测量行业保护的工具后,这些发现也同样稳健。因此,本文的贡献在一定程度上弥补了国际贸易中该领域实证研究方面的空白:证明了麦敕勒悖论理论不再只是一种可能性,而的确在服装业中存在。
Metzler (1949) pointed out that the imposition of tariffs on imports by big countries may reduce their relative domestic prices and thus reduce their share of the economy’s output. In view of this view, this paper develops a theoretical model about the logarithmic function system of the conversion of the gross domestic product (GDP), and estimates the influence of the U.S. trade policy on the output share of its industry. By using industry panel data from trade members of the United States and its Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and controlling the impact of factor endowments and technological innovations on the industry’s share of output, it emerged that high tariffs in the apparel and glass industries led to low Empirical evidence of share of output. These findings are equally robust after controlling for the endogeneity resulting from the political and economic factors of trade and the use of various non-tariff barriers instead of tariffs as a measure of industry protection. Therefore, the contribution of this paper to some extent, make up for the blank of empirical research in this field in international trade: Prove that the theory of McLeod’s paradox is no longer just a possibility, but does exist in the apparel industry.