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运用随机网络理论 ,构建了在现代高技术战争条件下 ,“红、兰”军双方激烈对抗时 ,公路军事交通运输勤务系统运行过程的 GERT网络模型 ,并举例求出了其解析解 .在此基础上 ,提出了演习 (或战争 )时 ,公路军事交通运输保障的“失败”概率与“转移”(战术、战役或战略转移 )概率的概念 ,并对其因素构成及其相互关系进行了剖析 .
Using the stochastic network theory, this paper constructs the GERT network model for the operation of highway military transport service system under the condition of modern high-tech war and the fierce confrontation between the “Red Army” and the “Blue Army” On the basis of this, we put forward the concept of “failure” probability and “transfer” (tactical, operational or strategic transfer) probabilities of military road transport support during the exercise (or war), and analyze its factors and their interrelations .