Clinical model for predicting the post-sustained virologic responses of hepatocellular carcinomas in

来源 :第四届晋冀鲁豫肝病论坛暨2016年河南省医学会感染肝病学术年会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:tiankoufangfangtu
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  Background/Aims: A clinical model for predicting the occurrence of post-sustained virologic responses of hepatocellular carcinomas (post-SVR HCC) in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients is lacking.Methods: We performed a case control study using a clinical database to research the risk factors for post-SVR HCC.A predictive model based on the risk factors was established,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated.Results: In the multivariate model,the initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis and post-SVR albumin reductions of 1 g/L were associated with 21.7 (95% CI =4.2-112.3,P < 0.001) and 1.3-fold (95% CI =1.1-1.7,P =0.004) increases in the risk of the occurrence of post-SVR HCC,respectively.A predictive model based on the initial diagnosis as compensated cirrhosis (yes,+1;no,0) and post-SVR albumin ≤ 36.0 g/L (yes,+1;not,0) was able to forecast the occurrence of post-SVR HCC with a cutoff value of > 0,an AUC of 0.880,a sensitivity of 0.833,a specificity of 0.896,and a negative predictive value of 0.956.Conclusions: Regarding risk factors,an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis combined with a post-SVR albumin value ≤ 36.0 g/L can predict the occurrence of post-SVR HCC in CHC patients.
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