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大坝安全监测的重要一环是对观测资料进行分析,建立合理的预报模型。本文以葛洲坝工程变形观测为例,介绍了几年来我们在资料分析工作中的探索。要建立合理预报模型,必须与物理意义联系起来,从定性和定量两个角度检验观测资料的可靠性,并把它们处理成为“信息”,这才有了建立预报模型的坚实基础,然后,将逻辑分析法与统计学方法紧密结合,充分了解变形的原因和变形量,合理地选择因子和使用实测数据,才能建立一个合乎实际的具有明确物理意义的变形预报模型,再通过反复检验,不断修改,渐趋完善。有了它,我们才能掌握葛洲坝工程的变形规律,从这一个角度,对大坝的运行性态作出正确评价。在探索正确的资料分析方法的同时,我们还努力开发与之相应的计算机软件,目前已初步完成,浩繁的资料分析工作已可以在计算机(PDP11/23)上进行。
An important part of dam safety monitoring is to analyze the observed data and establish a reasonable forecasting model. Taking Gezhouba Project deformation observation as an example, this paper introduces the exploration of data analysis in the past few years. To establish a reasonable forecasting model, we must link it with the physical meaning, test the reliability of the observed data from qualitative and quantitative perspectives, and treat them as “information”, so that we have a solid foundation to establish the forecasting model. Then, Logical analysis and statistical methods closely integrated, fully understand the causes of deformation and deformation, the rational choice of factors and the use of measured data, in order to establish a realistic deformation prediction model with clear physical meaning, and then through repeated testing, continuous modification , Gradually perfect. With it, we can grasp the deformation law of the Gezhouba Project, and from this perspective, we can correctly evaluate the operational performance of the dam. While exploring the correct data analysis methods, we have also worked hard to develop the corresponding computer software. We have now completed preliminary work and a lot of data analysis work can be done on the computer (PDP11 / 23).