论文部分内容阅读
With the implement of opening police and the development of economy, a market economy system has been constructed.Financial industry steadily grew up in the reform.It has achieved some success in supporting the development of economy, reducing and defending finance risk.In general, financial industry is keeping in a status of safe operation in our country.However, there is variety risks existed in financial industry.One of risks is the percentage of non-performing loan is too high in the commercial bank.Therefore, people should focus on the problem how to control and prevent the form of non-performing loan of commercial bank in crisis.Forecasting management of non-performing loan is the best way to deal with the problem.Firstly, this essay will analyze the status of non-performing loan of commercial bank.It includes the definition, conditions and reasons of construction of the non-performing loan in commercial bank.Then, the essay will analyze the me-thod and usage of forecasting non-performing loan at present.Moreover, it predictive analysis the nonperforming loan of commercial bank by applying the method of timing sequence of Holt double parameter index smooth, and gain a model.Finally, this essay shows some countermeasures for defending risks of nonperforming loan in commercial bank.