空间溢出效应在中国房价上升周期中的作用

来源 :中国科协第315次青年科学家论坛-计量建模与量化政策分析 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:bands007
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  本文研究了空间溢出效应在中国房价上升周期中所起到的作用。首先,我们通过检验房价增长率时间序列数据的结构性变化,估计了中国100个地级市以上城市住房市场进入价格上升周期的起始时间点。然后,我们根据所估计的起始时间点,运用全新动态空间面板数据的方法检验了房价上升周期在城市间传播的空间溢出效应。特别是,我们检验了住房市场空间溢出效应的广延边际,即当邻近城市进入房价上升周期后,给定城市是否会以更大概率进入房价上升周期,以及集约边际,即当邻近城市进入房价上升周期后,给定城市的房价会发生多大幅度的上升。我们发现,中国各城市间房价空间溢出效应显著为正,并且此溢出效应与各城市的经济基本面无关,说明了非理性因素对我国房地产价格的潜在影响。本文对中国现阶段所实施的去库存、以及限购等房地产市场调控具有政策启示意义。
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