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In the context of global warming and intensive urbanization, the hydrological characteristics in the Taihu Basin have and will keep changing greatly.With the combination of scenario analysis technique, hydrological response including runoff depth, flood frequency and water level of the Tai Lake to future climate change and human activities is simulated by using the distributed hydrological model VIC coupled with the hydraulic model ISIS, while the future climate scenarios are generated by the regional climate model PRECIS.