A Study on China’s Petroleum Reserve Strategies under Energy Transition Background

来源 :中国石油大学(北京) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:dfhg54h446jn6gfn
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
To increase energy security and reduce the dependency on imported oil,China is boosting up its effort of building up national strategic petroleum reserve while taking into account the associated costs including build up costs,purchases costs and holding costs.Since the initial aim for building Strategic Petroleum Reserve was to safeguard energy security and avoid macroeconomics losses caused by shortages in supply in the world oil market,however recently,the fears in oil market are no longer from the supply side but rather from the demand side.Oil prices uncertainties in the world oil market have been experiencing a sharp ups and down that mainly affect countries like China whose major economic growth depends on imported oil.With the new market reforms,it is important to analyse the advantages of allowing private companies to hold their own petroleum reserve site and to explore how it will affect the optimal reserve size to be held by the country.Development of renewable energies is another factor that may have affect the reserve size a country needs to hold in the future.A dynamic programming model that follows Markov Decision Process is developed and used to analyse how these oil prices uncertainties(stochastic variables)may affect the optimal reserve size at every year and each market state.A game theoretic model that study the interaction between public and private oil companies in holding the required petroleum reserve is presented to suggest how the latter two players may corporate.Moreover the development in new renewable energy resources is also discussed using a system dynamic model as they have an indirect effect in reducing energy dependency as well as increasing a country’s energy security.Empirical results of the dynamic programming model are presented to show the optimal size and the time path of the future petroleum reserve in China.The results suggested that under normal state despite of price uncertainties in the world oil market,initial fill up of reserve is 212 million barrels in 2014 with a filling rate of 50 million barrels each year,optimal size is expected to be attained in the year 2019 with 500 million barrels that is equivalent to China’s 2020 petroleum reserve plans.Currently China has only 30 days of net import therefore it still needs to increase its reserve size to the allowable 90 days of net import.We furthermore depicted the game theoretic model suggesting possible public and private payoffs that are based on joint venture ownership.The payoffs suggested all possible relationships that can exist between the two players and its corresponding effect.In addition to that the results from system dynamic model suggested that policies for renewable energies which aimed to increase the amount of renewable energy consumption and amount of electricity generation have a greater impact on reducing dependency on imported oil as well as increasing a country’s energy security.The amount of electricity that is generated from renewable energy resources has shown a dramatic increase and is expected to rise up to 30% in the year 2030.In conclusion,China still needs to fill its SPR reserve especially with low oil prices so as to minimize macroeconomic losses as well as costs associated to build-up of SPR sites.Policies that allow private oil companies to own their reserve site need to be established and reviewed over time since private companies’ site seems to play an important role to the public oil companies.This paper may be used by decision makers and planners as a guide to their decision making and planning process on how the current SPR is affected by the recurrent world energy transition background.
其他文献
植物是自然界一类固着生长的生物,为维持自身的生长发育需面对各种复杂的外部因素,在其长期的进化过程中形成了复杂的机制来应对外界环境变化。在诸多影响因子中营养物质的供给是最为基础的一个,在营养物质缺乏状态下植物几乎无法生长。雷帕霉素靶蛋白(Target of Rapamycin,TOR)是真核生物体内保守的编码丝氨酸/苏氨酸的蛋白激酶,同时也是生物体内感知营养物质,调控众多生物学过程的核心因子。近几年
学位
异型自交不亲和(Het SI)被认为是最为有效的一种避免自交的生殖策略。由于其独有的花柱异长现象及一系列对应的花器官多态性,使得花粉可以在型间进行精确的异配,这种奇妙的特质自从被达尔文系统总结出以后,学术界对其相关研究便经久不衰。尽管1877年学者们就开始Het SI反应相关研究,提出了一些有趣的假说和推论,但至今,无论是用于研究的材料还是成果,都远远不及同型自交不亲和(Hom SI)研究。尤其关
学位
鸢尾属(Iris L.)是鸢尾科(Iridaceae)中种类最多的属,其花型奇特,花色丰富,叶子常绿,具有极高的观赏价值,应用前景广阔。但是整个鸢尾属植物的表型性状丰富,在种的鉴定方面比较困难,导致该属下分类和部分种的位置具有争议。中国约产60种鸢尾属植物,是该属的主要分布区之一,其中西南地区占据的数量最多。本研究收集了27种鸢尾属植物和3种外类群种,利用ITS和matK基因对30份材料测序,并在
学位
密罗木是一种原产于南非的木本复苏植物,对干旱胁迫具有极强的耐受性,是亟待挖掘的重要基因资源。本研究在前人对密罗木开展的转录组学研究的基础上,克隆获得了一个受干旱脱水诱导表达的bHLH转录因子基因MfbHLH145,将其转化至模式植物拟南芥,对其功能进行了进一步研究,主要取得了以下研究结果:1.密罗木MfbHLH145基因克隆及序列分析本实验提取密罗木总RNA,并根据UniGene设计引物扩增得到M
学位
干旱和盐渍化是当今植物面临的主要非生物灾害之一,其主要作用机理是使植物内外渗透压不一致导致机体脱水。密罗木是世界上已发现的唯一木本干旱复苏植物,对干旱有极强的耐受性。本文以干旱复苏植物密罗木为研究对象,从中分离克隆到一个受脱水诱导表达的WRKY类转录因子基因MfWRKY17,将其转入到野生型拟南芥中,并从形态、生理、生化及分子生物学等多个方面对其抗逆功能进行了研究,主要获得以下研究结果:(1)从密
学位
本试验以3个菜豆品种‘超级九粒白’、‘超宽赛冠王’和‘美国加州王四季豆’菜豆无菌苗为材料,主要研究了菜豆离体再生过程中外植体的基因型、种类和各阶段培养基种类及激素种类、浓度等因素的影响。并初步探讨了降低菜豆不定芽褐化的方法,以建立菜豆的高效低褐化离体再生体系,为菜豆的遗传转化和新品种选育提供参考。本试验主要研究结果如下:1.菜豆高效离体再生体系的建立(1)子叶(上部和下部)、茎段和真叶(上部和下部
学位
DA-6(Diethyl aminoethyl hexanoate,二烷氨基乙醇羧酸酯)作为新型植物生长调节剂可促进植物光合作用与干物质的积累,提高作物抗性、产量与品质,且在光照较弱时效果更明显。本试验以四川地区栽培最广泛的冬草莓品种‘红颜’(Fragaria×ananassa cv.Benihoppe)盆栽苗为试材,栽植于塑料大棚内,叶面喷施0、10 mg/L、20 mg/L、30 mg/L与4
学位
陕西苹果园以传统密植栽培模式为主,随着果树树龄的增长,不少传统密植果园出现了郁闭现象,果园树枝茂密相互遮挡、空间狭小、封闭,果树最低枝杆离地不到1.2米,现有的果园机械大多为大中型,体积偏大难以进入果园开展作业;农业部苹果全程机械化科研基地已经针对郁闭型果园研发了微型果园机械,但其智能化水平较低。因此,为提高现有微型果园机械的智能化水平,本文研究适合于郁闭型苹果园的组合导航定位系统,开发相应郁闭型
学位
随着科技的进步,生产水平的提高,有机肥料的需求量年年攀高,但有机肥料的生产受生产原料,生产技术的制约,部分成品有机肥料存在着一定的质量风险,如重金属超标等,若长期大量使用,则有可能造成土壤污染等情况。因此了解目前有机肥料质量情况,特别是养分和重金属含量情况尤为重要。本文通过对2014年至2017年四川省主要有机肥料及有机肥原料的养分和重金属含量研究,得出结论如下:(1)按照有机肥料行业标准(NY5
学位
三唑磷是一种广泛使用的防治农业害虫的有机磷农药,该药物的大量施用及其在农产品和环境中的残留对陆生和水体环境造成极大的威胁。三唑磷作为神经毒剂在陆生动物上的研究较多,而以往的研究较少关注对鱼类的影响。本文以斑马鱼(Danio rerio)为试验动物,用不同浓度的三唑磷(0.06、0.3和1.5mg/L)对其进行96h体外暴露,观察斑马鱼脑和肝的组织结构变化,检测脑和肝中ROS含量、SOD和CAT活性
学位