俄罗斯出口增长的二元边际与影响因素研究

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These years, globalization progresses and investment are mobile, thus, it is ever more important for economists and policy makers to understand driver forces of exports growth at the micro-level:which products are being produced and exported the most? Which firms populate the domestic economy? Are they successful in exporting? How are industries influenced by exogenous shocks and policy problems? Through the use of descriptive statistics and econometric analysis, this paper estimates and observes the trade performance of Russia at the export level using micro-data. The case of Russia is interesting since the last decade and financial crises exposed sufficiently the vulnerability of Russia’s export growth when it faced the external shocks. Basing on the Amurgo-Pacheco and Pierola’s definition and method, we applied the HS-4 international trade data for 2007-2012 years to describe and analyze the dual margin of Russia’s export. We found out that Russia export growth mainly depends on the intensive trade margin, the share of extensive margin is very poor. The obvious bias to the intensive margin of Russia helped us to see and understand the wick sides of Russia’s export structure and why it is easily affected with external shocks.Moreover, we utilized the Gravity Model of Trade in order to understand the reason behind Russia’s export flows. We tried to find out if the common gravity variables have similar effect on Russian exports the way they do for the most advanced states. As Russian exports consist mainly of raw materials, one could assume that they behave differently from the exports of western countries. After examining the main sources of Russian growth in recent years, we investigated the question of whether and under which conditions Russia, being the resource-based economy, can sustain the proper growth performance. After this, we discuss the required policies for successful development further.The main findings of the paper are the following. Like many other countries, the growth of size of foreign markets and decreasing the trade costs (such as distance between the partners) have notable positive effect on the change in probability to have more diversified and raised export level. The Index of Freedom has also very significant effect among other observed determinants. All in this, the export performance of my country can be associated with internal problems with trade-related incentives and other internal constrains. Therefore, the liberalizing of domestic economic, social and business environment increases the probability of exporting new goods.
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