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萨金特基于其宏观经济模型认为,在理性预期的前提下,经济政策与宏观经济变量之间是一种单向的因果关系,导致货币政策无效。但在现实经济中,理性预期只是适应性预期的一种极端情况。如果将萨金特的理论前提从理性预期转换为适应性预期,则货币政策与宏观经济变量之间的关系只能是一种双向因果关系。利用中国的数据检验萨金特模型则不难看出,在短期内,不论是预期的还是未预期的货币政策均影响产出,只是后者对产出的影响大于前者;在长期内,预期到的货币政策对实际产出没有影响,即货币政策是中性的。因此,作为宏观调控手段之一的货币政策在中国不宜长期化。
Based on his macroeconomic model, Sargent believes that under the premise of rational expectation, there is a one-way causal relationship between economic policy and macroeconomic variables, resulting in the failure of monetary policy. However, in the real economy, rational expectation is only an extreme case of adaptive expectation. If the theoretical premise of Sargent’s conversion from rational expectations to adaptive expectations, the relationship between monetary policy and macroeconomic variables can only be a two-way causal relationship. Using the Chinese data to test the Sargent model, it is not hard to see that in the short run both the expected and the unanticipated monetary policies will affect output, but the latter will have greater impact on output than in the latter. In the long run, Of monetary policy has no effect on the actual output, that is, monetary policy is neutral. Therefore, as one of the macro-control measures, monetary policy should not be long-term in China.