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为评价李痘病毒入侵中国的危险程度及可能造成的影响,采用Maxent生态位模型,根据现有分布点及目标地区的环境变量运算出预测模型,再结合地理信息系统Arc GIS绘制李痘病毒在中国的适生等级预测图,将适生等级分成高适生区、中适生区、低适生区和非适生区;并以多指标综合评价体系为标准,从传入的可能性、定殖的可能性、扩散的可能性、受害寄主的经济重要性和病毒危险性的管理难度等5个准则层、共18个指标层因子,对该病毒在中国的入侵风险进行了定性和定量的分析。结果表明,李痘病毒在中国的适生区主要集中在华东和华南地区,经纬分布于101.93°~122.75°E,19.60°~40.76°N之间,占中国行政区划面积的25%~50%,适生范围较广。李痘病毒在中国的入侵风险指标值R值为2.49,属于高风险的有害生物,鉴于该病毒在中国暂无分布记录,建议在进境检疫中对其实施严格检疫,必须通过2种以上检测手段(必须包括血清学和分子生物学)进行排查及2年以上的隔离试种,以防止该病毒进入中国进一步蔓延传播。
In order to evaluate the danger and possible impact of Pox virus invaded China, Maxent’s niche model was used to calculate the prediction model based on the existing distribution points and the environmental variables in the target area. Then the Pox virus was mapped with GIS in GIS China’s fitness level forecast map, the fitness level is divided into high fitness area, moderate fitness area, low fitness area and non-fitness area; and multi-index comprehensive evaluation system as the standard, from the introduction of the possibility of colonization The possibility of proliferation, the possibility of proliferation, the economic importance of the victim host and the difficulty of virus risk management, a total of 18 indicators of the level of the virus in China in the risk of invasion conducted a qualitative and quantitative analysis . The results showed that the poxvirus is mainly located in East China and South China, and the latitude and longitude distribution ranged from 101.93 ° to 122.75 ° E and from 19.60 ° to 40.76 ° N, accounting for 25% to 50% of China’s administrative area. , A wider range of suitable living. The R value of the plum pox virus in China is 2.49, which is a high risk pest. In view of the fact that there is no record of the virus in China, it is recommended to strictly carry out the quarantine inspection in the entry quarantine, and more than 2 kinds of tests Means (including serological and molecular biology) must be investigated and more than two years of isolation tested to prevent further spread of the virus into China.