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Numbers released by the National bureau of Statistics in July show that China’s GDP growth in the first half of this year slowed to 7.6 percent， with growth in the second quarter only reaching 7.5 percent. Optimists believe that economic growth rose more than expected in the second quarter， but some economists say China’s economy still faces downward pressure， and an economic hard landing is likely. Despite these dire predictions， China will maintain a steady economic growth rate between 7-8 percent during the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011-15）.
Stable growth
The Chinese economy is facing downside risks in 2013. But after the past two quarters， China’s economic growth has started to stabilize with slower growth in consumption and export. Growth in domestic demand， driven by investment and consumption， has basically maintained its momentum as China’s exports have shown steady growth. Consumption is expected to continue to grow steadily. Investments in infrastructure construction and real estate are likely to see steady growth as well， and the growth of investment in manufacturing is expected to stop declining. China’s exports are estimated to recover due to the slowing momentum of RMB appreciation and increasing exportpromotion measures. The nation’s 2013 GDP growth has now been forecast at about 7.5 percent.
Unlikely hard landing
An economic hard landing is unlikely since China is still in the midst of high-speed industrialization and urbanization. Since China’s reform and opening-up， resources have been more efficiently allocated by market mechanisms. Both enhanced entrepreneurial capacity and the raising standard of living in the country have promoted industrialization and urbanization. Besides， China still has huge advantages in technology， human resources， and its high saving rate， all of which effectively propel its industrialization and urbanization.
First， China’s consumption market is experiencing stable growth. Residents’consumption is still quite high as a share of China’s GDP. In 2011， the Engle coefficient （the proportion of food expenditures to consumption expenditures） of China’s urban households was 36.3 percent， and while the same statistic for rural residents was 40.4 percent， significantly higher than in developed countries. Employment in China has generally stayed stable with an increasing minimum wage， and the improvement of basic public services and the social security systems. Spending on housing and transportation continues to rise. Second， the major construction projects laid out by the 12th Five-Year Plan should be completed on schedule. At the same time， various measures will be taken to support housing and related infrastructure construction to increase the supply of affordable and accessible housing， helping to eliminate excess capacity. In this case， investment can maintain steady growth.
Third， as the RMB exchange rate is kept stable and the government announces further policies to support exports， export growth is expected to continue at around last year’s levels.
In 2012， China shifted its economy to a growth mode that was more sustainable in the long run. It also maintained proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policy approaches with investment growth slowing but stable. Generally， the government provides a more stable policy environment conducive to economic growth.
A changing environment
The financial crisis hit developed countries hard and caused a significant reduction in international trade. Accordingly， gloomy foreign markets stifled China’s export growth， and the substantial appreciation of the RMB， in combination with rising labor costs， made exports more expensive. Meanwhile， the imbalance between urban and rural development is still a problem in the country. Population and industries are so concentrated in first- and second-tier cities that they have surpassed the carrying capacity of those cities.
A symptom of this problem is annoying traffic jams that are yet another serious problem in major cities. Car restrictions are spreading to more cities as the government continues to try to limit vehicle sales. Likewise， the supply constraints of the housing market greatly influence real estate investment returns. The government continues to focus on housing policy as a means to stabilize housing prices， which is helping end the rapid expansion of the country’s real estate market.
The “cooling” of the car industry and property market has deeply affected other industries， such as chemical raw materials， equipment manufacturing， energy and transportation. This has resulted in constrained domestic demand growth. Wages， the cost of land， water and mineral resources， and pollution charges have continued to rise， resulting in the increase of businesses’ operation costs. Because of this， enterprise restructuring has become a top priority.
Economic transition China has entered a critical economic transition. This transition will include industrial transformation and upgrades， high-quality urbanization， and improvement of China’s social security system， all of which will help pave the way for more sustainable growth.
Even with decreasing orders and higher manufacturing costs， restructuring and upgrading have still been a top priority for enterprises， and technological innovation， as well as improving employee performance， is at the heart of this transformation.
More importantly， China’s industrial transformation and upgrading will involve a series of investments， such as in the energy-saving and environmental protection industries. On the other hand， the implementation of the “Broadband China” strategy is expected to stimulate the consumption of information products and services in China. Therefore， industrial transformation and upgrading will help boost domestic consumption.
China should further relax its market access controls， reduce over-protection of its enterprises， and improve market exit mechanisms. In this way， resources will be allocated efficiently.
Risk control
As China’s GDP growth stays at a reasonable rate， there may be a number of risks， including an increase in the number of struggling enterprises， the amount of bad debt risk， and capital chain rupture. Steady growth aims to prevent and control these risks.
Currently， China’s economic transformation is still subject to risks， but these potential problems have not yet had a large-scale impact. China’s economy could see moderate and stable growth if these challenges are properly handled. However， economic transformation is a long-term project. Likewise， over the short term， there may not be an obvious improvement in the process of urbanization. The government needs to firmly guard against regional and systemic risks during the nation’s economic transformation so as to ensure steady economic growth.
（The author is a research fellow with the Development Research Center of the State Council）
Stable growth
The Chinese economy is facing downside risks in 2013. But after the past two quarters， China’s economic growth has started to stabilize with slower growth in consumption and export. Growth in domestic demand， driven by investment and consumption， has basically maintained its momentum as China’s exports have shown steady growth. Consumption is expected to continue to grow steadily. Investments in infrastructure construction and real estate are likely to see steady growth as well， and the growth of investment in manufacturing is expected to stop declining. China’s exports are estimated to recover due to the slowing momentum of RMB appreciation and increasing exportpromotion measures. The nation’s 2013 GDP growth has now been forecast at about 7.5 percent.
Unlikely hard landing
An economic hard landing is unlikely since China is still in the midst of high-speed industrialization and urbanization. Since China’s reform and opening-up， resources have been more efficiently allocated by market mechanisms. Both enhanced entrepreneurial capacity and the raising standard of living in the country have promoted industrialization and urbanization. Besides， China still has huge advantages in technology， human resources， and its high saving rate， all of which effectively propel its industrialization and urbanization.
First， China’s consumption market is experiencing stable growth. Residents’consumption is still quite high as a share of China’s GDP. In 2011， the Engle coefficient （the proportion of food expenditures to consumption expenditures） of China’s urban households was 36.3 percent， and while the same statistic for rural residents was 40.4 percent， significantly higher than in developed countries. Employment in China has generally stayed stable with an increasing minimum wage， and the improvement of basic public services and the social security systems. Spending on housing and transportation continues to rise. Second， the major construction projects laid out by the 12th Five-Year Plan should be completed on schedule. At the same time， various measures will be taken to support housing and related infrastructure construction to increase the supply of affordable and accessible housing， helping to eliminate excess capacity. In this case， investment can maintain steady growth.
Third， as the RMB exchange rate is kept stable and the government announces further policies to support exports， export growth is expected to continue at around last year’s levels.
In 2012， China shifted its economy to a growth mode that was more sustainable in the long run. It also maintained proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policy approaches with investment growth slowing but stable. Generally， the government provides a more stable policy environment conducive to economic growth.
A changing environment
The financial crisis hit developed countries hard and caused a significant reduction in international trade. Accordingly， gloomy foreign markets stifled China’s export growth， and the substantial appreciation of the RMB， in combination with rising labor costs， made exports more expensive. Meanwhile， the imbalance between urban and rural development is still a problem in the country. Population and industries are so concentrated in first- and second-tier cities that they have surpassed the carrying capacity of those cities.
A symptom of this problem is annoying traffic jams that are yet another serious problem in major cities. Car restrictions are spreading to more cities as the government continues to try to limit vehicle sales. Likewise， the supply constraints of the housing market greatly influence real estate investment returns. The government continues to focus on housing policy as a means to stabilize housing prices， which is helping end the rapid expansion of the country’s real estate market.
The “cooling” of the car industry and property market has deeply affected other industries， such as chemical raw materials， equipment manufacturing， energy and transportation. This has resulted in constrained domestic demand growth. Wages， the cost of land， water and mineral resources， and pollution charges have continued to rise， resulting in the increase of businesses’ operation costs. Because of this， enterprise restructuring has become a top priority.
Economic transition China has entered a critical economic transition. This transition will include industrial transformation and upgrades， high-quality urbanization， and improvement of China’s social security system， all of which will help pave the way for more sustainable growth.
Even with decreasing orders and higher manufacturing costs， restructuring and upgrading have still been a top priority for enterprises， and technological innovation， as well as improving employee performance， is at the heart of this transformation.
More importantly， China’s industrial transformation and upgrading will involve a series of investments， such as in the energy-saving and environmental protection industries. On the other hand， the implementation of the “Broadband China” strategy is expected to stimulate the consumption of information products and services in China. Therefore， industrial transformation and upgrading will help boost domestic consumption.
China should further relax its market access controls， reduce over-protection of its enterprises， and improve market exit mechanisms. In this way， resources will be allocated efficiently.
Risk control
As China’s GDP growth stays at a reasonable rate， there may be a number of risks， including an increase in the number of struggling enterprises， the amount of bad debt risk， and capital chain rupture. Steady growth aims to prevent and control these risks.
Currently， China’s economic transformation is still subject to risks， but these potential problems have not yet had a large-scale impact. China’s economy could see moderate and stable growth if these challenges are properly handled. However， economic transformation is a long-term project. Likewise， over the short term， there may not be an obvious improvement in the process of urbanization. The government needs to firmly guard against regional and systemic risks during the nation’s economic transformation so as to ensure steady economic growth.
（The author is a research fellow with the Development Research Center of the State Council）