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假设中国省域产业结构间存在空间依赖性,提出了研究产业结构变化的空间滞后模型和地理加权回归模型,分别在全域和局域内,对中国31个省域产业结构变化进行了空间计量回归.结果显示:1)假设得以证实——省域产业结构间存在显著的空间依赖性;2)产业结构初始值、人均GDP等因素对产业结构变动的影响具有显著的空间变异现象,即这些因素对产业结构的影响依据区域不同存在显著差别.基于这两点,得出主要结论:为推进省域产业结构的高级化,应将邻接省域产业结构状况加以考虑,作为一个系统整体分析;并且考虑到要素具有的空间变异性,针对不同区域确定主要影响因素分析研究.
Assuming that there is spatial dependency among industrial structures in China’s provinces, a space lag model and a geo-weighted regression model are proposed to study the changes of industrial structure. Spatial regression of industrial structure changes in 31 provinces in China is conducted respectively in the whole region and the local region. The results show that: 1) the hypothesis is confirmed - there is a significant spatial dependence between the industrial structure of the province and province; 2) the spatial variation of the industrial structure change caused by the initial value of the industrial structure, per capita GDP and other factors, Based on these two points, the main conclusions are drawn as follows: In order to promote the advanced industrial structure in the province, the industrial structure in adjacent provinces and regions should be considered as a systematic and overall analysis; and considering To the elements of the spatial variability, for different regions to determine the main influencing factors analysis and research.