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发射事件关联把属于同一次发射、在不同飞行阶段产生的目标关联在一起,对于态势显示、反导预警、目标识别具有重要意义.文中研究了基于弹道定轨的发射事件关联方法的边界条件.首先,通过理论推导论证了不同波段雷达的定轨精度;其次,结合弹道定轨精度分析了发射事件正确关联对多枚导弹的发射点间距和发射时间间隔的要求;最后,通过场景仿真和弹道仿真验证了结论的有效性.文中结论对于导弹突防和反导预警具有指导意义.“,”Launch events discrimination associates the targets of different flying periods in the same launch event.It plays great role on state display,anti-missile early warning and target recognition.This article studies the bounds of launch events discrimination based on orbit fitting.First,orbit fitting accuracy of radars in different bands is derived in theory.Then,requirements of correct launch events discrimination to the launch distance and launch time space for multi-missiles are analyzed combined with orbit fitting accuracy.Finally,method efficiency is verified by situation simulation and orbit simulation.The result has potential help for antimissile systems and early warning.