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考虑滑面介质的流变特性结合滑坡监测资料,运用尖点突变模型中状态变量的突变来反映滑体的突滑,建立了一个滑坡时间预测模型。基于突变理论,分析了单滑面滑坡的失稳机制,分析结果表明:滑体突滑失稳的必要条件仅取决于滑动面剪切段介质和蠕滑段介质的刚度比。根据尖点突变理论的分叉集方程,得到了滑坡突变时间的计算公式,为滑坡预报提供了初步的理论依据。同时,根据能量转化原理,导出了滑体突滑初速度的计算公式。最后将理论模型应用于某实际的滑坡工程。
Considering the rheological properties of sliding media and landslide monitoring data, the sudden change of state variables in cusp catastrophe model is used to reflect the slip of sliding body, and a landslide time prediction model is established. Based on the catastrophe theory, the instability mechanism of single slide landslide is analyzed. The analysis results show that the necessary conditions for the slip instability are only determined by the stiffness ratio of the media in the shear zone and the creep zone. According to the cusp catastrophe theory of cusp catastrophe theory, the formula of sudden change of landslide time is obtained, which provides a preliminary theoretical basis for landslide prediction. At the same time, according to the principle of energy conversion, the formula for calculating the initial slip speed of the sliding body is deduced. Finally, the theoretical model is applied to a practical landslide project.