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目的通过风险评估以确定H7N9禽流感疫情在廊坊市扩散、流行的可能性,为终止突发公共卫生事件Ⅳ级响应提供科学依据。方法检验方法为实时荧光PCR法,评估方法为专家会商法,对此次人感染H7N9禽流感疫情的风险因素进行识别、分析,做出风险评价。结果此次人感染H7N9禽流感疫情在廊坊市传播流行的风险等级为低,不排除再发生病例的可能性。结论近年来突发公共卫生事件逐步引起重视,风险管理的核心环节是进行风险评估。风险评估工作已成为预警、评价突发公共卫生事件的一种有效手段。当风险评估内容还没有可依据的固定的评估工具或评估框架时,无法进行较为准确的定性、定量的评价,专家会商法成为突发事件公共卫生风险评估的首选方法。此次廊坊市在处理河北省首例人感染H7N9禽流感疫情中,运用专家会商法开展突发事件公共卫生风险评估,指导疫情防控工作,取得了很好的实效。
Objective To determine the possibility of spread and epidemic of H7N9 bird flu in Langfang City through risk assessment and to provide a scientific basis for terminating Grade IV response to public health emergencies. The method of detection was real-time fluorescence PCR, and the evaluation method was the expert commercial law. The risk factors of the human infection of H7N9 bird flu were identified and analyzed to make risk assessment. Results The prevalence of the H7N9 bird flu epidemic in Langfang City was low and the risk of recurrence was not excluded. Conclusions In recent years, public health emergencies have gradually attracted attention. The core of risk management is risk assessment. Risk assessment work has become an effective means of early warning and evaluation of public health emergencies. When the content of the risk assessment is not based on a fixed evaluation tool or evaluation framework, it is impossible to conduct a more accurate qualitative and quantitative evaluation. Experts’ commercial law becomes the preferred method of public health risk assessment in emergencies. The Langfang City, Hebei Province, the first case of human infection with H7N9 bird flu outbreak, the use of experts to commercial law to carry out public health risk assessment of emergencies, and guide the prevention and control of the epidemic, and achieved good results.