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◆ 05年将经历最坏的时刻,也将提供最好的时机。上证指数1150点区域将成为2005年市场调整的底线,也极有可能成为2001年以来市场大级别调整的最后底线。我们认为A股市场的长期投资价值将在2005-2006年出现。但从2005年市场波动的高点来看,1550点区域以上仍然存在较高的年内系统性风险。 ◆ 我们预计2005年市场波动呈现为“凹型”状态的可能性较大,在明年一季度左右市场将以一个高调的尾声结束上涨,而后陷入中期调整;但在四季度很可能步入渐进反弹。 ◆ 市场热点的主流趋势将基本呈现出“投资与投机相互交替,蓝筹股越走越强,题材股越来越弱”的基本特征。相应的应对策略可以概括为“谨慎参与上半年投机氛围较浓的阶段性反弹,战略把握下半年跌出来的建仓机会,持续关注优质蓝筹股的核心主线”。 ◆ 在经济收缩周期中,行业景气度的不同衰落序列能够让投资者选择如何规避风险。我们预计05年市场将围绕“持续成长”、“瓶颈资源”、“贸易开放”,“消费升级”、“减持试点”、“价格管制放松”、“利率上升”和“人民币升值”八大方向重估排序。
◆ 2005 will experience the worst moment, will also provide the best time. The 1150 point area of the SSE Composite Index will become the bottom line of the market adjustment in 2005 and is also likely to become the bottom line for the adjustment of the overall market level since 2001. We think the long-term investment value of the A-share market will appear in 2005-2006. However, from the high point of market volatility in 2005, there is still a high annual systemic risk above the 1550-point level. ◆ We expect the market to be in a “concave” state in 2005. In the first quarter of next year, the market will end up with a high-profile end and then fall into the medium-term adjustment. However, it is likely to enter a gradual rebound in the fourth quarter. ◆ The mainstream trend of hot market will basically show the basic characteristics of “mutual investment and speculation, stronger and stronger blue-chip shares, theme stocks weaker and weaker”. The corresponding coping strategies can be summed up as follows: “Prudently participating in the relatively strong speculative atmosphere in the first half of the year, and holding the opportunity of Jiancang falling in the second half of the year, and continuing to focus on the core line of premium blue-chip stocks.” ◆ In the economic contraction cycle, the different fading series of industry sentiment allows investors to choose how to avoid risks. We expect the market will focus on the eight directions of “sustained growth”, “bottleneck resources”, “trade liberalization”, “consumer upgrading”, “reduction pilot projects”, “price control easing”, “interest rate rise” and “RMB appreciation” Reassessment of sorting.