一、前言 发展中国家的电站系统有因维修而导致严重经济损失或产生巨大效益的事情,而这样的例子对于我们是不多见的。不过,要在这方面做出很合适的经济分析会有一定的难度,因为有些因素可以精确地估计出来,而另一些因素虽然重要,但却无法预计。 二、电力缺乏是普遍情况 在这些国家旅行过的人们,会经常体会到停电和响遍大街的小发电机的嗡叫声。原因很简单,这类国家的发展意味着对电力需求的巨大增长,需求量也许每5年就要翻一翻。为此,要寻找大量资金来建设新电站。在传统的火力发电厂中,如果安装300～500MW规模的发电机组,粗略的投资估计是每MW需100万美元,后续的建设费用和电网等还要另算。这些国家一般都缺乏资金,因而不能大量地建设电站,更糟糕的是电力传输的损失又 I. INTRODUCTION Power station systems in developing countries have caused serious economic losses or huge benefits due to maintenance. Such examples are rare to us. However, it will be difficult to make a very appropriate economic analysis in this area, because some factors can be accurately estimated, while other factors are important, but they cannot be predicted. Second, the lack of electricity is a common situation People who have traveled in these countries will often experience power cuts and yelling of small generators that rang through the streets. The reason is simple. The development of such countries means that there is a huge increase in electricity demand, and the demand may be doubled every five years. To this end, it is necessary to find a lot of money to build a new power station. In a traditional thermal power plant, if a 300 to 500 MW generator unit is installed, the rough investment is estimated to be US$1 million per MW, and the subsequent construction costs and power grids will be calculated separately. These countries generally lack funds and cannot build large numbers of power stations. What’s worse is the loss of power transmission.