Sensitivity of key factors and uncertainties in health risk assessment of benzene pollutant

来源 :环境科学学报(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:g56410029uoyuhao1995
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Predicting long-term potential human health risks from contaminants in the multimedia environment requires the use of models.However, there is uncertainty associated with these predictions of many parameters which can be represented by ranges or probability distributions rather than single value. Based on a case study with information from an actual site contaminated with benzene, this study describes the application of MMSOILS model to predict health risk and distributions of those predictions generated using Monte Carlo techniques. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints. This directly translates into a reduction in data collection and modeling effort. It was demonstrated that how correlation coefficient could be used to evaluate contributions to overall uncertainty from each parameter. The integrated uncertainty analysis shows that although drinking groundwater risk is similar with inhalation air risk, uncertainties of total risk come dominantly from drinking groundwater route. Most percent of the variance of total risk comes from four random variables.
其他文献
目的:为进一步了解基层医院院感管理现状,发现医院感染管理过程中存在的问题,寻找应对措施及重点培训方向,为卫生行政管理部门加强管理提供理论依据[1].方法:采用自制调查问
中国海外企业在经营时往往会遭遇东道国更倾向于劳方的劳工保护法律.这些法律对于资方的中国企业来说无疑是一种挑战.因此,中国海外企业在掌握东道国劳工保护法律的同时,还需
在西方法律文化中,国际商事仲裁之仲裁庭应由奇数个仲裁员组成,在没有仲裁协议规定的情况下,仲裁员的人数为三个。国际商事仲裁中,虽有一些国际统一标准,但法律文化在仲裁庭
长期以来,“一元”的政治世界观客观上始终是中国社会建设的真实主线,其政治社会特征一直保持着的是“乡里从属都邑”“农村从属城市”;社会的进步是后者对前者放松规制而得
本文根据隧道衬砌表面、衬砌内部、围岩内部的温度及隧道洞内外气温和风速的实测结果,获取了隧道温度场的分布情况以及隧道内发生冰冻段的长度和冻结深度的第一手资料。在此基
为提高安全气袋模拟计算中折叠建模的精度,对气袋折叠建模中常用的3种折叠方式的几何误差进行了计算分析,并提出了相应的修正方法。结合一个实际气袋模型的计算结果,验证了修
主要结合 AHMS仿真系统的设计 ,介绍 Open GL技术作为一个 3 D可视化仿真工具在AHMS仿真系统中的应用 Mainly combined with the design of AHMS simulation system, introd
针对资源有限最短时间的一类资源-时间优化问题,提出了混合单亲遗传算法进行求解.作为一类NP完全问题,该问题求解难度相当大,尤其问题规模大时寻找最短时间优化解就更困难.针
We investigated the dynamics of the simple spiral waves of the Selkov reaction-diffusion system with the Lattice Boltzmann method. The results of computer simul
应用ABAQUS软件,建立了沥青路面结构动力响应三维有限元模型,分析了结构参数对路面动态响应的影响规律;结合正交试验,对路面结构参数进行了敏感性分析。分析结果表明:(1)随基